Monday, November 06, 2006

Week 10 BlogPoll Draft Ballot

My original ranking method involved a strict insistence on transitive rankings. With the increasing chaos in the rankings, I abandoned this method last week. This week I'm trying out a subjective resume scheme where I pick out a number of teams under consideration (the subjective part) and review the wins that each team has against this group. Also considered were each team's losses. It's far from a perfect system (see Rutgers) but overall I'm pretty happy with the results. As always, first the rankings and then my thoughts. Any input in much appreciated.

1 Ohio State --
2 Michigan --
3 Rutgers 9
4 Texas 2
5 Florida --
6 California 2
7 Auburn 3
8 Louisville 1
9 Southern Cal 2
10 Arkansas 2
11 Notre Dame --
12 Tennessee 9
13 Boston College 1
14 West Virginia 1
15 LSU 3
16 Wisconsin 1
17 Georgia Tech --
18 Maryland 8
19 Wake Forest 3
20 Oklahoma 6
21 Nebraska 5
22 Virginia Tech 2
23 Oregon 3
24 Clemson 8
25 Boise State 4

Dropped Out: Texas A&M (#19), Brigham Young (#23), Washington State (#24), Tulsa (#25).

Some Thoughts:
1. Ohio State - I almost put Michigan here, but just couldn't pull the trigger. The win against Texas is very strong.

2. Michigan - Hopefully they get the kinks worked out and take care of Indiana.

3. Rutgers - Probably to high for Rutgers, but my criteria comes out with 4 quality wins against no losses. The games against Louisville and WVU will be huge.

4. Texas - Perhaps the most improved team in the country.

5. Florida - Just a hair behind Texas, but a loss to Auburn is worse than a loss to Ohio State.

6. Cal - Tempted to move them past Florida and Texas, but the Tennessee game wasn't even close. Another much improved team.

7. Auburn - I go back and forth with Auburn and Florida. Which is better, wins against Tennessee and LSU or WSU, LSU and Florida? I may have mistepped here.

8. Louisville - I think the second best win Louisville has is against MTSU. I just can't move them higher right now.

9. USC - Seems about right.

10. Arkansas - Another team that is awfully tough to rank. Do you put more weight on the loss to USC or the win over Auburn?

11. Notre Dame - Notre Dame always look better when you don't consider margin of victory (and I largely didn't).

12. Tennessee - Had they beaten LSU, they would be in the top 5. Seems harsh, but there it is.

13. Boston College - Four good wins (CMU, Clemson, BYU and VT) but also a very bad loss (NC State).

14. West Virginia - Good win against Maryland is the only thing keeping them in the top 20 on the ballot.

15. Louisiana State - Finally a quality win. Seems about right.

16. Wisconsin - Awfully similar resume to WVU (PSU~Maryland, Michigan~Louisville).

17. Georgia Tech - The ACC is causing me more problems right now than any other conference all year.

18. Maryland - I was really sleeping on these guys, losses to WVU and GT.

19. Wake Forest - Another ACC question mark. Good win against BC.

20. Oklahoma - Watching them this weekend the defense is something else. The offense...not so much. More on Oklahoma in a later post.

21. Nebraska - Maybe a little high?

22. Virginia Tech - Looks like they've turned the season around. Losses were to GT and BC.

23. Oregon - Somebody has to go down here.

24. Clemson - I kind of wanted to drop them, but just couldn't.

25. Boise State - Probably should be a bit higher, but hard to place. Good wins against Hawaii and Oregon State.

"Teams Under Consideration" (in order of ranking)
Texas A&M
Oregon State
Washington State
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
South Florida
Penn State
San Jose State


At 10:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your system has a Rutgers team that barely beat a UNC team at #3? i had some respect for your system and input, but not anymore.

I wouldn't put them in the top 12 at this point. Let them beat a ranked team and then give them consideration. The rankings and BCS is set up for the "best" teams....not the "most deserving" teams.


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